I know you have all been waiting with baited breath for my World Series analysis. Today, hours before the Series gets underway, I have decided to share my analysis with the world.
Lets get the prediction out of the way first. I am picking the Phillies to win in 5 games. Why? Because Jimmy predicted it, and I never bet against Jimmy. Also, as I will discuss below, the Phillies are stronger than the Yankees at 7 of 8 player positions, the teams are even in starting pitching, and the Phillies have a better bullpen (I know, I know Mariano is there...but so is Joba and his sweaty hat). All that adds up to a Phillies team with a clear edge.
Lets go position by position and analyze:
Catcher: Ruiz v. Posada. I give the hitting edge to Posada, but Chooch is hitting .400 for the postseason so that edge is very slight during October baseball. Defensively, this is not even close. I would say that, at this point in his career, Posada has the arm of a 7-year-old girl, but that would insult 7-year-old girls everywhere. Jorge is great in that ESPM commercial, but he cant throw, cant block balls in the dirt, and with the Phillies baserunning ability that is a large liability for his team. Add to that the fact that the Yankees #2 starter wont throw to him and I give the advantage to RUIZ.
First base: Howard v. Texiara (I dont care enough to learn to spell it right). Tex is a more well rounded hitting than Howard, and better defensively, but Howard's run production and clutch postseason hitting have been carrying the Phillies this year. He tied Gherig for most postseason games with an RBI, and his 9th inning double averted disaster in Colorado. Edge HOWARD.
Second base: Cano v. Utley. This one is a clear to me. Utley is a better overall hitting, baserunner and defender than Cano. Cano is a solid second baseman, and would win this matchup against many other teams, but not against Utley. Utley also wins the heart factor - while Larry Bowa was with the Yankees he criticized Cano's lack of hustle and heart while playing the game. No one would ever say that about Chase. Advantage UTLEY
Shortstop: Rollins v. Jeter. This is probably the closest call. Jeter is having a great offensive season, and his playoff heroics are well document to the point of being ridiculous (I am waiting for McCarver to fawn over Jeter's perfect form while adjusting his cup, complete with telestrator). But, Jimmy has been having a clutch offensive postseason as well. He started a key rally off Huston Street, and ended the Dodgers season by calmly dealing with Broxton's "unhittable" fastball. What solves this matchup for me is the defense. Jeter has the defensive range of a sea slug. Yes, he only made 9 errors this year. Why? Because he didnt even come close to getting so many balls that other shortstops reach that he didnt have the chance to make an error. Jimmy is the best defensive shortstop in baseball, s edge ROLLINS.
Thirdbase: A-Fraud v. Feliz. Clear edge to RODRIGUEZ. Better hitter, clutch this postseason and sold defense. Feliz has done nothing in months so this was not a close call.
Outfield: I decided to deal with the outfield as a group because the Phillies have the clear edge. In left, Damon and Ibanez compete. Raul is having his best offensive season, and despite a nagging abdominal injury has put up great numbers. Damon is a mistake hitter, and while he showed some grit with the Sox during their run, injuries and age have caught up with him. In center Victorino is one of the best players in the game right now. Gold glove defense, a .300 average and great speed make him a triple threat. Also, CC should recall that grand slam from last year..... Melky Cabrera is, well, Melky. Some good moments, but an average player. Finally in right we have Werth and Swisher. Mr. Moneyball hasnt done a damn thing the entire postseason, and is shaky on defense. Werth had a breakout season, is really hitting for power and plays a great defensive right. Advantage: PHILLIES.
Pitching: I think the starters in this series are very evenly matched. CC and Lee are both great, and will likely cancel each other out. Pedro and Burnett and very similar as well. Both are capable of an outstanding performance, and both are just as capable of a 2nd inning exit. After that, its a tossup. Pettite has the experience of the big stage, but so does Hamels if he can find himself for this series. Blanton/Happ are both better than Gaudin, but I doubt Girardi lets him start a game. Look for CC on 3 days rest. As for the bullpen, during the playoffs the Phillies have been much stronger. Durbin and Park have both had electric stuff, while Joba and Hughes have looked pedestrian. I am waiting for Joba to be attached by bugs, or dissolve into a pile of sweat on the mound. Of course, Rivera gives the Yankees the clear edge in closer, assuming that Lidge is the Lidge of this year. If Lidge is back to last year's form, and only the future can tell us that, then the late innings will be tough for either offense.
Manager: 4 years ago I didnt think their was a dumber manager in baseball than Charlie and boy did I eat those words. Now, I am not sure there is a dumber manager than Girardi. Most games he looks like he has no idea what is going on. He manages his bullpen like a 10 year old playing X-Box, and benches his #1 catcher so the no-hit wonder Molina can make AJ feel cozy. Charlie has pushed all the right buttons this postseason, including managing a bullpen held together with duct tape for most of the year. Advantage, CHARLIE.
So there you have it - in almost every position the Phillies have a clear edge, and in the intangibles I also give the Phils the edge. Oh, and not for nothing, Yankees admitted PED users = 2, Phillies = 0.
I welcome your thoughts and comments - lets discuss!
Go Phillies!
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